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ICBC Global Financial Market Daily Review--January 22, 2017
 

I. Yesterday's News
1. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, fell 0.1 percent on Friday as investors found few reasons to make big bets on the U.S. currency following newly sworn-in President Donald Trump's inauguration speech in which he pledged to put "America first," reigniting some worries of protectionist policies. U.S. Treasury yields fell from two-and-a-half-week highs. U.S. stocks closed higher, marking the first time in more than 50 years that a new commander-in-chief has been welcomed by a rising equity market on his first day in office.

2. Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker said on Friday he expects three interest rate increases in 2017 if the labor market improves further and inflation moves to the Federal Reserve's 2 percent goal, saying "I see three modest hikes as appropriate for the coming year, assuming the economy stays on track." Harker said that the Fed should consider ending reinvestment of maturing securities when the fed funds rate reaches 1%.

3. The head of the International Monetary Fund Christine Lagarde said on Friday that one of the biggest risks to the global economy in 2017 was "a race to the bottom" on taxes, regulations and trade. Protectionist policies from the new U.S. administration of President Donald Trump will probably have a negative impact on the economy, overshadowing any positive gains from economic stimulus measures, Lagarde said on Friday.

4. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Friday U.S. economic growth and inflation may accelerate in coming years, which may push up interest rates and the value of the dollar. Kuroda said on Friday the country's economy is likely to head toward a sustainable growth path as global trade and manufacturing activity pick up.

II. Market Overview
FX
The dollar edged lower in choppy trading on Friday as investors found few reasons to make big bets on the U.S. currency following newly sworn-in President Donald Trump's inauguration speech. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, briefly fell to session lows during Trump's remarks in which he pledged to put "America first," reigniting some worries of protectionist policies. But the decline was modest as Trump did not touch on specific economic or trade policies. The dollar index fell 0.1 percent. The dollar fell against the euro , Japanese yen and British pound after posting some modest gains earlier on Friday. It rose against the Australian , New Zealand and Canadian dollars , as well as currencies of most other major commodity producers.

Precious Metals
Gold prices turned up on Friday, as the dollar fell and U.S. Treasury yields came off their highs after Donald Trump was sworn in as U.S. President. Spot gold was up 0.5 percent at $1,211.30 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures settled up 0.3 percent at $1,204.90 per ounce.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
Oil prices rose more than 2 percent on Friday on expectations that this weekend's meeting of the world's top oil producers would demonstrate compliance to a global output cut deal, but rising U.S. drilling activity limited gains. Brent crude ended the session up $1.33, or 2.5 percent, at $55.49 a barrel. U.S. crude for February delivery closed up by $1.05, or 2 percent, at $52.42 a barrel before expiring. The more active March contract settled up 2.1 percent at $53.22.

2. Base Metals
Copper prices rose on Friday as the dollar slipped, but gains were capped by weak investment and industrial production data from top consumer China fueling worries about demand. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange closed 0.2 percent up at $5,748 a tonne but is on course for its first weekly loss since before the Christmas break.

U.S. Treasuries
U.S. Treasury yields fell from two-and-a-half-week highs on Friday after Donald Trump adopted a populist tone as he was sworn in as U.S. president, raising some concerns that fiscal stimulus efforts may be delayed. Benchmark 10-year notes fell 3/32 in price to yield 2.47 percent, after earlier rising to 2.51 percent, the highest since Jan. 3. The yields have jumped from a low of 2.31 percent on Tuesday.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday in a modest but broad-based advance as Donald Trump was sworn in as U.S. President, marking the first time in more than 50 years that a new commander-in-chief has been welcomed by a rising equity market on his first day in office. In his speech, Trump said U.S. policy will be to buy American and hire American, reiterating what he had said many times during this campaign for the White House. Some investors said the comments reinforced concerns about potential protectionist trade policies. Indexes pared gains during his speech and ended off the highest levels of the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped a five-session losing streak, closing up 94.85 points, or 0.48 percent, to 19,827.25. The S&P 500 gained 7.62 points, or 0.34 percent, to 2,271.31 and the Nasdaq Composite added 15.25 points, or 0.28 percent, to 5,555.33. All three major indexes ended with losses for the week.

2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong stocks ended a thinly-traded week down and snapped three weeks of gains on Friday, as investors were wary ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration as the 45th U.S. president later in the day. The benchmark Hang Seng index fell 0.7 percent, to 22,885.91 points at the close, while the China Enterprises Index lost 0.8 percent, to 9,715.72 points. The benchmark index lost a modest 0.2 percent this week.


(2017-01-23)
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