I. Precious Metals
Gold
Gold firmed on Monday as the dollar softened, although trading was thin due to the U.S. holiday and as markets awaited details on President Donald Trump's tax policy. President Trump will continue to be a key source of market inspiration. Trump's address to the joint session on Capitol Hill next Tuesday may become the next focus considering he is expected to lift the curtain on his tax cuts ideas. The FOMC will release the minutes of its last meeting. A cautious tone on interest rates hike will boost bullion. Meanwhile, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares, reported an outflow of 2.4 tonnes on Friday, the first in nearly four weeks.
On technical front, gold was consolidating at highs, but the MACD suggested a downside prospective. Bullion is expected to fall to $1,215 in near term.

Silver
Silver tracked gold, closing in the positive territory on Monday. But on chart, silver outperformed gold, as the former had been holding above the 200-day moving average for days. Technically, a tumbling gold would send the white metal lower to the 100-day moving average of $17.20 as the MACD pulls back.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Oil prices inched higher on Monday, as investor optimism over the effectiveness of producer cuts encouraged record bets on a sustained rally, although growing U.S. output and stubbornly high stockpiles kept price gains in check. Top OPEC exporter Saudi Arabia's crude oil shipments fell in December to 8.014 million barrels per day (bpd) from 8.258 million bpd in November, official data showed on Monday. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers, including Russia, agreed last year to cut output by almost 1.8 million bpd during the first half of 2017. Estimates indicate compliance with the cuts is around 90 percent. U.S. energy companies added oil rigs for a fifth consecutive week, extending a nine-month recovery with producers encouraged by higher prices. Oil prices are unlikely to rise sharply.

Copper
The price of copper bounced back above $6,000 a tonne on Monday. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed 1.9 percent higher at $6,070 a tonne, recovering from losses on Friday. U.S. mining giant Freeport-McMoRan Inc said on Monday that it could take the Indonesian government to arbitration and seek damages over a contractual dispute that has halted operations at its huge Grasberg mine. The dispute contracted supply that's supporting prices.

Soybean
The Chicago Board of Trade was closed for holiday.

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
Cheng Yu